Return to normal?

So... I'm home and watching news again (mostly because Jeannie watches news). During my entire trip I didn't watch or listen to ANY news...it was AWESOME!

A common theme I keep hearing is about when we will return to 'normal'. I've heard lots of discussion on that but nobody is telling the real truth (referring to time I mean). Sure, the hard truth is there will be no normal until there is a widely available (as in world-wide) vaccine, OR, when nearly the entire planet has had the virus. Those are the only 2 scenarios that will allow the world to go normal again.

So...taking the vaccine off the table for the moment, being as we have no idea if an effective vaccine will EVER actually be available...(as there certainly is no guarantee that will happen...look at aids), let's just do the hard numbers.

I just looked it up...so far the US has had 3.78 million "confirmed" cases. The United States 2020 population is estimated at 331,002,651 people at mid year according to UN data (from the internet). Now I will also take a huge leap here (due to the current highest estimated number of asymptomatic covid cases being at 45%) and say based on that figure (and I will even go a bit further and add 5% to it to make it an even easier 50%) then there have now been 5,670,000 cases of Covid-19 in the US, out of the total population of 331 million. That is only 1.7% of our population, and just to be generous (and make it easier as I am SO not a math guy) lets call it 2%. I figure we have been actively dealing with this since the beginning of March, which gives us a total of about 140 DAYS that our country has seriously been trying to slow the spread of the virus. 

Given the rate of infection over that time, and IF there is never to be a vaccine, and assuming roughly the same transmission rate would continue, then we would need 13,720 more days for a 100% infection of just the US...which equates to 37.5 YEARS.

Yeah....have you heard ANYBODY talk about this (other than yours truly)?? This is a truly tough call here...what to do. We have already tanked our economy, putting countless people out of work and WAY TOO MANY small businesses out of business, and spent MANY TRILLIONS of $ that we don't even have...and we currently have LESS THAN 2% of our country so far that have had it. 

The big question (the herd of elephants in the room) is where to go from here. We OBVIOUSLY can't continue doing what we are doing...(social distancing, and businesses either completely shut down or running at fraction of their necessary capacity). How long do we keep this up? That is the unanswerable question that will dominate the near future, as this is an election year. As typical in politics, this will be THE dominant factor in the election. The orange man is SO not doing a good job, but on that point, what would a good job be considering what we know? Congress is actually in control of a LOT of what is always blamed on the sitting President. So taking the lame efforts currently in play from the top, what should Congress be doing? HOW do we deal with this? I honestly don't know, other than that what we are doing, while slowing the transmission rate (which was actually teh goal from the start) is killing us as a country and the world as well. There is a lot of seemingly right things that could be done here.

One of the biggest changes we cold make is to do our best to shelter the highest "at risk" category of people...(the elderly and those with any conditions that make them more susceptible to catching it) and pretty much open the world back up for the rest. But by doing that you are basically taking away THEIR rights by denying them the same rights and privileges as the non-at-risk folk. But that would surely be the easiest way to get some semblance of 'normal' for most of society...you just need to take away a smaller groups rights in the name of protecting them. 

Obviously a vaccine is what the world is desperately counting on, and SOON...as it will be the only real way I can see to get us to normal again.  In the meantime, what do we do? Continue as we have been? At what point do we give that up (if the vaccine ends up being years or longer down the road)? 

I sure don't know the answers here...I feel more like Gilligan (on Gilligan's Island) in the one episode where Gilligan was agreeing with everybody ("the Skipper is right....oh yeah, the Professor is right, yes, Mr Howell is right. Gilligan, everybody can't be right. You know Skipper, you're right!"

Pretty much in the big scheme of things, this isn't really much different than a bad Influenza season....every year the flu kills millions. Why is this SO different that we (the world) have been willing to financially wipe us out? I don't even really know the answer to that, other than politics. To have ignored this and let it wash over the world, well, I can only say that THIS one is different...I don't recall a bad flu season EVER wiping out the big cities ICU's beyond capacity, refrigerator trucks parked outside for the bodies (I saw on the news this am that Houston has trucks parked and ready much like NYC was using during their tidal wave of sick).  And the potential of this virus (when you react bad to it) is worse IMO than even a bad flu...it KILLS even younger people, does some pretty bad things to many that survive (brain/heart/lung damage and more). I just know that I get my flu shot every year, hoping the CDC did a good job with their magic 8 ball as to what versions of the flu to add to the next years concoction....some years are better and some are worse. But no flu season that I can recall was like this. 

Which brings us back to the question: what SHOULD we (and the world) be doing that we aren't, and what should we NOT be doing that we are? How do we ever dig our way out of this?

I liken this entire nightmare scenario we are currently living in to the fictional Star Trek Kobiyashi Maru test that they put all future Commanding Officers thru, to see how they handle a "no win" situation. (am I a total sci-fi-geek? Obviously the answer is YES). 

So...the floor is open. What do we do? How do we forge our way forward? All I truly know is that I'm very glad that I'm NOT the one people are counting on for answers. And sadly, as has been the case for a VERY long time, the very people we truly NEED to step forward and lead us are too smart to do that to themselves and their families, and we are stuck with the B team (or worse) leading us.

Wow...sorry...this post got kind'a political, as I've sworn not to do here...but I guess it can't be helped here as this entire scenario IS political, like it or not. Every single bit of anybody in the news biz has their own agenda. It sure would be nice to have good old Walter Cronkite back...just give me the news and let ME make my determination as to what to make of it. Yep...those days are REALLY long gone. 

Anyway, that's all for now. Chime in or not...this is as much me ranting to feel a bit better about things (best not to keep stuff locked away but to talk about it and bring it out in the open) as anything. 

And away we go...into the bright blue yonder of our future. At least, I sure hope it's bright blue...doesn't look that way right now. Looks more like a Florida thunderstorm from hell.